Obama rolls back Bush restrictions on Cuba

as part of the $410 billion budget Obama signed today, several provisions essentially roll back limits imposed by Bush on travel and business with Cuba.

first, restrictions on travel to Cuba by US residents with relatives in Cuba have been eased. Cuban-Americans can now travel to Cuba once a year (instead of once every three years under Bush.) also, the two-week maximum duration of their stay has been lifted.

second, the definition of "relative" has been broadened to include uncles, aunts, nephews and nieces, meaning more Cuban-Americans will be able to travel to Cuba than under the more restrictive definition used by Bush (only parents, grandparents, children and siblings counted as relatives).

third, US residents traveling to Cuba will be able to spend more dollars there (up to $179.00 per day).

and fourth, the policy of expecting Cuba to pay for agricultural and medical goods in the US before the cargo was loaded onto ships headed for Cuba has been ended. instead, the pre-Bush policy where payment was expected when the goods reached Cuba is back in effect (this is the method favored by U.S. farmers and exporters because it makes trade easier).

US Citizens still have great limitations on their ability to go to Cuba and spend US dollars there.

one hopes this is the beginning of the end for such restrictions. however, there is opposition to any such moves in Congress.

initially, the relatively small changes made prompted two Democrat senators, Bill Nelson of Florida and Bob Menendez of New Jersey, to consider opposing the spending bill. tight oversight of the changes was promised in exchange for their votes. both senators ultimately backed the bill.

meet the younger boss, same as the older boss

so ... after a year in power and having done very little in the way of real change, King Raul fires two of the most prominent Cuban leaders, changes others around, consolidates some ministries, and basically shows he's in charge. top Cuban government figures falling in disgrace? been there, done that. only the names are different. well, not really (more on that later).

the two biggest leaders to be fired were Carlos Lage (Vice President of the Council of State, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party, and Executive Secretary of the Council of Ministers) and Felipe Perez Roque (Minister of Foreign Affairs, the youngest member of the Council of State, and the only Council member born after the Cuban Revolution in 1959).

to my surprise, Wayne Smith (probably the most experienced Cuban expert alive) said he was surprised by King Raul's move. ("“He certainly surprised me,” said Mr. Smith, now the director of the Cuba program at the Center for International Policy in Washington. “I’m certainly watching and waiting with interest.”) Source.

surprised? really? this same thing has been done by the Castro Brothers over and over again (Big Brother usually being the active party). Anyone remember the Ochoa trial and the subsequent political bloodbath at the Ministry of the Interior? Or more recently, the firing of the Education Minister, Luis Ignacio Gomez Gutierrez?

the reason for such punishment has always been the same: less than 100% acquiescence with the real power in Cuba: King Fidel (Allegedly Retired).

King Fidel (Allegedly Retired) admits he was consulted prior to the decision, not because of any obligation for anyone to do it, of course, but because that's how true revolutionaries behave (his words). To be a true revolutionary, one must consult King Fidel (even if Allegedly Retired). This obligation, one must conclude, includes King Raul (Recently Crowned). Not to do so is to be a false revolutionary, and thus to be subject to reprisal.

the reprisal follows an old, familiar pattern:

1. summary firing;
2. public disgrace as the fired leader is exposed as corrupt/weak/immoral or all the above
3. quiet acquiescence by the fired leader and admission of guilt

this time it was no different. two of the longest-serving members of the ruling clique were fired. King Fidel (Allegedly Retired) wrote an editorial stating that they had allowed the "honey of power obtained without any sacrifice [to] aw[ake] in them ambitions which led them to play a shameful role." Source. the two men then wrote letters admitting to mistakes and resigning all their posts.

this has been King Fidel (Allegedly Retired)'s playbook for 50 years. and he's still at it.

any attempt to interpret this move solely in light of a move by the Castro brothers to (a) facilitate change in Cuba or (b) facilitate change in Cuba-US relations is missing the big picture. The Castro Brothers brought out their trademark character assassination tools. the reason is simple: fear of internal challenge, whether real or perceived.

so, what led to this? based on the past, the only possible answer is that Lage and Perez Roque fell out of favor with Raul because they must have disagreed with him on a series of issues and voiced their views (most likely regarding the direction of the Cuban Revolution).

less than fully loyal, and potential rivals for power, they had to be sidelined because to fall out of favor with Raul Castro is to fall out of favor with the power behind Raul, the real power in Cuba, and the one who still matters: Fidel Castro.