King Fidel Speaks on the Radio

King Fidel sent a New Year message to the Cuban people, basically saying "I am getting better slowly."

so, let's for now assume the message is legit and Fidel is still alive (i believe he is -- Prince Regent Raul has nothing to gain and much to lose from hiding that fact).

it is clear that Raul has been taking more and more of a lead as the real leader of Cuba; the tension between Fidel saying "I am still in the game" and Raul doing the actual governing is palpable.

as usual, Fidel just won't go gentle into that good night.

Raul Castro Puts it on the Line

first, let's remember that Prince Regent Raul ran the Army and the tourist industry, the two things in Cuba that work (slight exaggeration only).

and let's remember that whereas King Fidel spoke for hours (sometimes days) during meetings of the National Assembly, Prince Regent Raul has limited himself to brief, content-driven remarks.

Prince Regent Raul has also encouraged those around him to "tell it as it is."

What is clear is that Raul's style and form are very different from Fidel's style and form. Whereas Fidel is the magician keeping an illusion going, Raul appears to be the realist trying to keep the illusion from blotting out reality.

Fidel's style worked for 47 years: the rambling speeches, the ideological absolutes, the positioning of Cuba as David to the U.S.'s Goliath, the subservience of economic progress to the ultimate goal of socialist purity -- or as he put it so often, "Socialism or Death". For Fidel, there was no third option.

Raul, on the other hand, limits his comments to brief statements. He has embraced Chinese-like capitalist means in order to keep his armed forces going (through control of hard-currency earning tourism). Let's also not forget that among his first foreign policy statements were two (yes, two) dialogue initiatives towards the U.S. -- the first ignored, the second rebuked.

Perhaps the biggest difference between Raul and Fidel appear to be that, whereas Fidel's ultimate goal was to keep Cuba socialist no matter the price, Raul appears ready to sacrifice (or at least compromise) socialism to make Cuba work.

Almost immediately upon taking power, he launched a "theft in the workplace" campaign in the media, highlighting one of Cuba's great problems: since only the state has anything worth having, everybody else steals from the state. He also called for "frank" discussions about Cuba's many economic ills.

In recent comments, he stated that the Revolution was tired of excuses, and that bureaucratic delays were "inexplicable." Stating Cuba's public transportation is on the point of collapse, he seems to be calling for major reforms in that sector.

One thing is certain: Prince Regent Raul seems willing to tackle the very apparatus of government bureaucracy as the problem, whereas his brother saw that bureaucracy as the price to be pay to run a socialist dictatorship.

Will Prince Regent Raul be successful in streamlining all (or most) of Cuba's infrastructure and economy as he succesfully did with the Army and tourism?

That appears to be his goal.

We can only wait and see.

US Congressional Delegation Arrives in Cuba

the bipartisan group arrived in Cuba yesterday, and plan to dine with Ricardo Alarcon, President of the National Assembly.

they are: Reps. Bill Delahunt, D-Mass., Jeff Flake, R-Ariz; Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y.; Lincoln Davis, D-Tenn.; Mike Conaway, R-Texas; Jim McGovern, D-Mass.; Jo Ann Emerson, R-Mo.; Jane Harman, D-Calif.; Jerry Moran, R-Kan.; and Hilda Solis, D-Calif..

the State Department urged them to push for democratic reforms in their meetings with senior Cuban officials.

one wonders if the seeds of real dialogue will be planted during this visit, now that Congress has swung to the Democrats and the next US President seems almost certain to be a Democrat.

the Bush's administration failure to engage Prince Regent Raul in dialogue when he requested it shortly, and now its instructions for the Congressional delegation to push for democratic reform is business as usual with Cuba, and it has gotten exactly the same results as the past 47 years of American policy towards Cuba.

i am convinced that if the US had engaged Cuba in dialogue in the late 1980's, the transition happening in Cuba today would be very different indeed.

think ahead, guys ... think ahead...

Source

this is not to suggest that Cuba's track record is not horrible. for example, after the 2003 Congressional visit, dissidents who met with the US Representatives were jailed shortly thereafter.

i am just saying that the hard line has not worked for 47 years. perhaps a softer approach might get better results. it can hardly get any worse results...

Peaceful Demonstration Quashed

showing (again) that the official voice is the only one permitted in Cuba, government thugs broke up a peaceful demonstration in Havana this Sunday almost as soon as it began:

Scores of government supporters broke up a silent march by a small group of dissidents marking International Human Rights day on Sunday, roughing up participants and accusing them of being mercenaries and "worms."

The demonstration involving fewer than a dozen opponents in a public park in Havana's Vedado neighborhood was interrupted as soon as it began by burly men who pushed and surrounded participants.

"Long live Fidel and Raul!" the government loyalists chanted, referring to ailing leader Fidel Castro and his brother. "Down with the worms!"

"They are mercenaries!" some of the loyalists shouted of the dissidents.

Another silent opposition march was scheduled Sunday in the early afternoon by the Ladies in White, who march after Roman Catholic Mass every Sunday to call for the release of their husbands and other political prisoners held in Cuban jails.

Source

The "President" In President Castro

loved this comment on another entry:

After reading about King Fidel, tractor confiscation and other stuff I am confused. I thought Castro was "President" and CUBA was the shining jewel of the success of communism?

Indeed.

King Fidel was "elected" President not by the people, but by the hand-picked National Assembly. He had no opposition and was "elected" unanimously. To be eligible to be "elected" President, you have to be a member of the National Assembly, a position only open to the elite Communist Party hierarchy.

The members of the National Assembly, in turn, run unopposed (only the Communist Party can nominate candidates), and since the Communist Party also counts the votes, well... they win every single time (not a bad formula, eh?).

Too funny, no?

Cuba Among Worst in Jailings of Journalists

China, Cuba, Eritrea and Ethiopia are the four worst nations when it comes to imprisoning journalists, according to this year's Committee to Protect Journalist's census:

For the eighth year in a row, China led the way in jailing journalists with a total of 31 imprisoned on Dec. 1, the census found, followed by Cuba with 24 reporters behind bars, Eritrea with 23 in jail and Ethiopia with 18 journalists jailed.

As if to highlight Cuba's atrocious treatment of independent journalists, jailed journalist Normando Hernandez Gonzales has been transferred to a prison hospital after serious health problems linked to tuberculosis and gastrointestinal issues led to his collapse after losing 35 lbs of weight.

Hernandez has accused the Cuban government of exposing him to tuberculosis deliberately, as have several other dissidents held in the same prison.


Normando Hernadez Gonzales


Hernandez is serving a 25-year prison term for reporting without authorization on issues such as health, education, the judicial system, tourism, general culture, and Cuban fisheries.

Source in Spanish

Bizarre Love Triangle

Raul loves Bush who loves Chavez ... who loves himself...

Raul says to Bush: let's talk.

Bush says: No, thanks.

Bush says to Chavez: Can we talk?

Chavez says: No, thanks.

Lesson for Raul: get some oil (like Chavez) and then the US will want to talk to you.

And when the US wants to talk to you, you can then say "No, thanks."

Until then, you're small fry, my small fry man.

Cuban Pastor Trial Underway

the trial of Cuban protestant pastor Carlos Lamelas started today in Havana. Pastor Lamelas is officially charged with "human trafficking," despite the lack of evidence to that effect. Observers believe he is being persecuted for his religious beliefs:

Lamelas’ case appears to be part of a wider move to restrict religious freedom across the country. A number of pastors and priests have reported increased government harassment and some have reported the forcible closure or destruction of church buildings. At least one other church leader, also from a denomination belonging to the Cuban Council of Churches, was forced to flee the country this summer and has applied for asylum in Europe.

Source.

Bush Administration Squanders Opportunity to Open Dialogue with Cuba

in a thoroughly predictable manner, the Bush administration has rebuffed Prince Regent Raul's latest attempt to open a dialogue with the U.S.:

The State Department on Monday rejected an offer of talks with Raul Castro, Cuba's acting president, saying it saw no point in a dialogue with what it called the Caribbean island's "dictator-in-waiting."

"The dialogue that should be taking place is not between Raul Castro and any group outside or any country outside of Cuba. It's the regime, with the Cuban people, talking about a transition to a democratic form of governance in that country," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.

Source

If the U.S. wanted to improve the lot of Cubans and increase the chances of internal dissidents being heard, it will not do so by continuing on the path it has been on for the past 47 years.

Rather, the U.S. should recognize that the embargo has failed to bring freedom to Cubans, and try a different approach. An implicit recognition of Raul's conditions for dialogue (mainly no criticism from the US as to how Cuba treats its internal opposition) may be too far to go, but certainly a response more limited in scope but open to dialogue with Cuba might have been the first step.

Once that first step is taken, who knows where the dialogue may lead? Such a dialogue will by necessity involve the highest levels of government in Cuba, from which ranks the successor of Raul Castro will inevitably come (Raul, you may recall, is 75, a heavy drinker, and has heart problems). What an advantage for the US to be engaged in conversations with the next leader of Cuba!

Sadly, this will not happen under the Bush administration. Its short, curt "no thanks," can not but harden even further the positions on both sides.

Or to put it more bluntly, in the words of The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson,

[T]he Bush administration has been even more idiotic than its predecessors in its policies toward Cuba, which means that the United States is perfectly positioned to have little or no influence over what kind of Cuba finally evolves.

yup...

How Significant is Raul's Olive Branch?

during Saturday's military parade (a showcase of exactly how obsolete the Cuban military is), Prince Regent Raul saber-rattled (calling his army invincible), and then offered an olive branch to the United States. His words:

"We take this opportunity to once again state that we are willing to resolve at the negotiating table the long-standing dispute between the United States and Cuba."

Source

Prince Regent Raul made roughly the same statement after taking over from King Fidel a few months back. His conditions for the dialogue? The U.S. government must respect Cuba's independence and not interfere in its internal affairs.

Prince Regent Raul showing his age

What does Raul want? The same deal China has: it can do business with the US and the US asks few questions about how China treats its citizens, dissidents included.

However, the differences between China and Cuba are staggering. China is an enormous and emerging economic power, one the US can't afford to have scruples with. Cuba, on the other hand, is a backwater, insignificant country, and it costs the United States little to stand firm on its moral ground.

This, perhaps, is Cuba's great tragedy. Its leaders (first Fidel and now Raul) believe they are far more important in the scheme of things than they really are.

Independent Journalists Report on Raul's Parade

here are excerpts of two stories written in Cuba, by independent journalists, reflecting the Cuban people's response to the much-ballyhooed military parade that took place today:


José Antonio Fornaris, Cuba-Truth:

In Cuba, it seems the American embargo has no effect on the purchase of weapons by the government. A good thing would be that next December 2, new public buses should parade through the Plaza of the Revolution, which would then be put to the service of the people.

Perhaps the soldiers could carry bags of food rather than rifles, which would then be sold at affordable prices to all Cubans. Also, the parade should include scale models of new housing, which the country needs so desperately.

The government's waste in weapons purchases reaches the billions since 1959, despite the acute needs of all types which our people suffer.


Leonel Alberto Perez Belette:

One of my neighbors used to say that when someone needs to prove his strength, that means his weakness, or insecurity, is strong indeed . . . . He added that in the Soviet Union, similar parades were held, and the whole system crumbled in a matter of days without a shot being fired. It fell thus because it was propped on an economic lie and the strength of its repressive apparatus.

The actual acting president, Raul Castro, has prepared a parade with hundreds of combat vehicles, tanks, rocket launchers, other military equipment, thousands of soldiers, and even aviation. Rehearsals have been taking place over the last few days, as well as the "spontaneous" show of support by the people . . . .

The vehicles and planes taking place in the parade are, in large part, from the Soviet era, and they consume enormous quantities of fuel. They were refurbished in great detail, and the paint on them is still fresh. Thus, the cost in repairs and fuel of the parade must be in the millions of dollars. Another cost is the damage to the streets, easily seen after the tracked vehicles go by . . . .

These [expenses] are taking place in the middle of an economic crisis felt all too well in Cuban homes, even as Christmas arrives at our doors. Food prices continue to rise; the bulk of the population live by breaking the law and being creative, and a lucky few survive with dollars received from outside Cuba. In the meantime, the Castro family and their cronies waste the resources generated by the people in order to satisfy their Napoleonic dreams.

King Fidel a No-Show

... on the military parade to celebrate his (belated) 80th birthday, King Fidel was missing.

Prince Regent Raul gave a saber-rattling speech about Cuba's military being "invincible" (something even he does not believe, being the realist that he is), and then made an offer of dialogue to the United States.

the speech was directed at the Cuban people: Fidel or no Fidel, the regime goes on. it was also directed at the United States: we'll talk, but on our terms.


Prince Regent Raul waves a
Cuban flag during the celebrations


The celebrations came to an end, and King Fidel continues to ail. many Cubans now believe he will never return to lead them.

the best expression of the day was an old man interviewed by the New York Times:

“The old man is as weak as me,” said the man, in his 70s, who sells copies of the Communist Party newspaper from the wheelchair he has used since losing a leg to gangrene. “I will outlast him.”

thus the fate of tyrants: the people they oppress always outlast them, and they get to have the last word.

On Any Given Saturday

well... more precisely, on December 2, 2006, the Cuban army, better known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolutionarias, or FAR in Spanish) will parade in Havana to celebrate its own 50th birthday as a fighting force and its Founder and Commander in Chief, His Revolutionary Highness King Fidel's belated 80th birthday.

FAR's parade will consist of obsolete Soviet-era armored vehicles, MiGs, and quite a few of the estimated 60,000 soldiers in its ranks, an 80% drop from the days where FAR fought the South African army to a standstill in Angola.

alas, how times change.

or do they?

who is the intended audience for this parade? Cuban propaganda says it is to show the United States how strong Cuba still is.

yeah, right. FAR doesn't stand a chance against a sincere US invasion, and they know it.

who is the intended audience, then?

first, the Cuban people. for them, the parade says: we still have the guns and the planes to blow you to kingdom come if you should rise against us. look how strong we are. there is no point in fighting us. your only course of action is to remain passive.

second, its trading partners and economic benefactors. for them, the parade says: look, there is continuity in Cuba. King Fidel may pass away, but Prince Regent Raul has things well under control. look at our parade. look at how stable this nation is.

King Fidel, of course, was supposed to maybe, perhaps, attend the parade in his honor, if possible ... but chances are he is much to ill to attend.

it really makes no difference.

meet the new boss, same as the old boss...