today, at 2:30 pm EST, the Cuban National Assembly (every single one of them a Communist Party member, and every single one of them aware of what is expected of them) will name the new President of the Council of State, i.e. the official Cuban head honcho.
no one expects anyone other than Prince Regent Raul to get the nod. in fact, Fidel made it clear before his illness that Raul was his successor of choice. likewise, when Fidel had a fainting spell some years ago during a speech, the party hack who came to the microphone called for calm from the crowd: "All is in order.
Companero Raul is in charge, as has been determined."
the people of Cuba have little choice as to who their new leader is. this is so obvious that to say it again seems risible. the so called "elections" leading up to this point are meaningless, as no real opposition is permitted to run against Communist party hacks. the real dissidents are in jail or under house arrest, or under constant threat of physical violence if they step out of line.
no, the real issue is how free will Raul be to implement his own policies. he is more pragmatic than Fidel, and will almost certainly move towards a China-style capitalization of Cuba. in fact, in small ways, he's already been doing that, focusing his speeches on the need to reorganize, streamline, and optimize government (mis)management of the economy, which, as the last 50 years show, has been a complete and unmitigated disaster.
Raul's balancing act will be to open up economic opportunities without upsetting his very powerful brother and without creating any expectations of political reforms. the only way to get Cuba's economy really moving is to allow the private sector (as in China) to participate in and even dominate the economy. Raul knows this, and seems willing (unlike his brother Fidel) to give it a go.
However, Raul has certainly given no indication of any willingness to give up political power -- quite the opposite: he has consolidated power around him during the past two years by careful appointments and personnel reshuffling. today, his power in Cuba is unquestioned, and the transition has already been accomplished. the only threat to Raul, ironically, is his brother Fidel. but more on that later.
so what is in store for Cuba? Continued political repression and human rights violations, continued war on its dissidents, and continued existence under a military dictatorship.
what will change? movement towards private enterprise, a breaking of the state monopoly on economic activity, and China-like encouragement of entrepreneurship.
the only question is, how far can Raul take these reforms while his brother is still alive?
and will Fidel be able to remain silent and on the sidelines if Raul's policy displeases him?
one almost feels as if King Lear were being replayed in a tropical stage. Raul's only threat comes from Fidel. will the old King, now sidelined by choice, choose to come back into center stage if he becomes displeased with Raul's policies? and will Raul be willing to give up what power he has at that point? Raul knows that he must go slow lest he displease Fidel. so long as Fidel lives, Raul lives in the shadow of a very likely political comeback by his older brother.
one thing is certain: by not accepting an official title, Fidel's authority and real power are in no way diminished. so long as he lives, Fidel is the real power in Cuba.
Raul knows this. It will be interesting to see how he uses what power this new development will give him. he will certainly have to go slow, for he knows Big Brother is watching.
