Raul Castro: The Great Leap Forward?

ok, so conventional wisdom has it that Raul Castro is an unsophisticated muscle man, someone who will resort to force first rather than nuance to deal with any internal problems.

what if conventional wisdom is wrong?

for one, Cuba's dissidents tend to view Raul Castro as an opportunity for chage.

says dissident Vladimiro Roca of Raul:

"He lets people counsel him, unlike Fidel, whose only adviser is found in the mirror. He has a more open mind."

Oscar Espinosa Chepe, another dissident, on Raul:

Espinosa Chepe agreed that the younger brother would be compelled to launch economic reforms as rising prices of food and basic services like electricity cripple Cubans, whose average salaries are $15 a month. And then, he said political reforms might follow.

See Full Article.



is this the face of the new Cuba?

what are the Cuban dissidents saying? they are saying that Raul is not in Fidel's league; that, unlike Fidel, he will be controlled rather than controlling; that unlike Fidel, he will be shaped by those around him rather than shaping them; that unlike Fidel, he will be mastered by circumstances rather than master them.

in other words, without Fidel, these dissidents see a chance that (at long last) power may slip from the grasp of a single man who has managed to dominate and control an entire country for almost 50 years.

with Raul's coming (a less skilled, less powerful, less charismatic leader), the dissidents see a chance for change.

one hopes they are right. one also hopes that the change is for the better.