The U.S. Goal in Cuba: Avoid Mass Exodus

sure the Bush administration would like to see a democratic (whatever that means) Cuba. but what they really DON'T want to see is a mass exodus of Cubans heading for Florida and the good life in the U.S.

let's face it, even after Castro's fall, and assuming an easy transition to a market economy, Cuba is going to be an economic disaster for years to come. why sit it out when you can cross the Florida straights and land in a cousin's or brother's or friend's Hialeah apartment?

thus, the message put out by Bush and Rice and others this past week is one of "stay calm, don't go nowhere" to Cubans.

just today, Bush assured those in Cuba that whatever happens in Cuba will be "up to Cubans living on the island to decide."

as if that wasn't clear enough, Bush clarified he was talking about Cubans currently in Cuba, not exiles. the article goes on:

At the same time, draft documents obtained Monday also describe plans to discourage any mass migration from Cuba to the United States. The plan would crack down on smugglers and refuse U.S. entry to Cuban government officials who have engaged in human rights abuses. But it would make it easier for some Cuban doctors to move to the U.S.

While stressing that any policy shift was not yet final, administration officials said the changes could be announced as early as this week.

"Taken together, they promote safe, legal and orderly migration, while they also support the Cuban people in their aspirations for a free and prosperous society," says a draft copy of Homeland Security Department talking points obtained by The Associated Press. See Full Story.

in other words, Cubans should not look to the U.S. as a place of refuge when the brown stuff hits the fan. for better or worse, there's not going to be a Mariel II.

of course, you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men ...