Bush Policy in Cuba Misguided

in light of recent events, it is clear that the Bush administration believes (erroneously) that with King Fidel gone, the Cuban communist system will collapse. Wishful thinking.

it is also clear that the Bush administration's biggest concern with a Cuban transition is a mass exodus a-la-Mariel that will flood Florida with scampering Cubans. the administration's message to Cubans: in the middle of the upcoming chaos that will follow Fidel's death, STAY HOME.

both issues show how, after 47 years, US policy makers still have no grasp of the Cuban problem 90 miles to their south. hard-line policies towards Cuba have, again and again, produced almost the exact opposite to the intended result.

here's are excerpts from an excellent opinion piece on that subject:

Reality in Cuba Belies U.S. Goals
by Paolo Spadoni

...

Since the early 1990s, Washington's stated goal with respect to Cuba has been to hasten a democratic transition on the island, which eventually would lead to the abandonment of the current state-controlled communist system in favor of a multiparty democracy with free and fair elections, freedom of speech, press and association, and a market-based economy.

To achieve this goal, U.S. policymakers have devised a series of restrictive measures aimed to deny hard-currency revenues to the Castro government that would be used by the latter to resist domestic and international pressure for change.

However, in recent years Cuba has been moving in the direction exactly opposite to the one envisioned by the United States. Havana's authorities have reverted some of the capitalist-style economic reforms they had implemented between 1993 and 1994 to ensure the survival of a system on the verge of collapse. They have also stepped up government control on the overall economy and exhibited greater intolerance of political dissent.

Thus, from a U.S. standpoint, Cuba is farther from democracy today than it was a decade ago.

...

In short, the Castro government has been able not only to minimize the economic pressure of U.S. sanctions, but also to skillfully introduce liberalizing measures and regain almost complete control at a later time. Such an outcome has important implications for both U.S. policy and Cuba's future, especially in light of the most recent events.

Imagine if Castro had fallen ill 10 to 12 years ago, in the middle of a profound crisis and substantial economic changes. It would have been extremely difficult for the Cuban authorities to prevent further liberalization. Now, with the economy in better shape and a process of re-centralization well on its way, it will be easier for them to stay the course.

While an ailing Castro turned 80 on Sunday, Washington's long-standing goal of hastening a democratic transition on the island remains a chimera. Rethinking the overall policy approach toward its communist neighbor could be a good idea for the United States, as a post-Fidel Cuba might not look too different from the current one.